Previous cycles did not have an ETF. Previous cycles didn’t have a President that acquired $1B in btc. Previous cycles didn’t have Wallstreet on board and advisors starting to pitch BTC allocation to their >9 figure AUM ultra high net worth clients.
Realized market cap needs to be \~2T for btc to be valued @ $1MM.
The current global M2 is \~100T, and is projected to double over the 10 years. You’re telling me we’re going to get another $100T of fiat in the world, and you don’t think *at least* another 1T is going into btc?
Given the ETF, given the BTC treasury companies, given that it is now a Wallstreet asset, it is 100% obvious we’re going to get at least another trillion USD into bitcoin over the next 10 years.
H/T dotkruger, Gary Cardone on spaces.
Edit:
Addressing a common misunderstanding in the comments…
***Realized*** **market cap** means the sum of the prices the last time the asset was moved on the blockchain, aka how much fiat people actually paid to buy into the network. The *realized* market cap is $1T.
**The “*****regular*****” Market cap** (normally stated as simply “market cap”) is total value of all the coins that have been mined. It is this sum that sits at 2.3T.
They are different terms and not the same thing.
Edit:
It takes *another* \~$1T over the span of 10 years to move the price to $1MM, *not* 20T.
Because the passage of time or “speed” of investment affects the magnitude of effect on price per dollar invested, if this amount was injected over a shorter time frame, the price would go up even farther.
The $1T/10yr figure was calculated by Fred Kruger, his resume is online… (Standford math PhD, 9 figure net worth, Wallstreet veteran).
It is a *conservative* estimate of what we can expect to transpire, and for those that missed the point (i.e. “bitcoin doesn’t care”), it is highly likely the typical 4 year cycle price action is a thing of the past, this is what happens when you see institutional adoption grows and retail becomes much less of an influence.
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